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FRB(アメリカ連邦準備制度)の赤字(2025Q2まで)

以前「 FRB(アメリカ連邦準備制度)の赤字 」について 2025Q2 まで更新されたので、グラフを延長する。データ、出所などの説明は以前の記事を参照。 FRBの利息収入( 青い破線 )は2022からほぼ同水準で変動しているが、利息費用( 緑二重線 )が2023Q3から徐々に減少している。それ以外に債権(国債など)と債務(当座預金)の額を考慮する必要があるが、ここでは省略している。財務省への送金前の純所得( 赤い線 )の赤字はかなり縮小してきた。2025Q2も前期比べてわずかだか赤字は縮小し、銀行業資本として正常な状態に戻りつつあるといえる。 なお、用語の対応は、 総利息収入Total interest income、 総利息費用 Total interest expense 財務省への送金前の純所得 Reserve Bank and consolidated variable interest entities net loss before providing remittances to the Treasury 損失の場合は、 Reserve Bank and consolidated variable interest entity net loss before providing remittances to the Treasury   準備預金への利子率 Interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate)

The Logical Emergence of Banking Capital from the Circuit of Industrial Capital: A Modern Unoist Approach

 Full paper available here

introduction  

To explain commercial capital and banking capital, Marx began by discussing the transformation of commodity capital and money capital into commercial capital and money-dealing capital (Marx 1981: title of Part 4). His method was first to divide the circuit of industrial capital, G-W…P…W’-G’, into production and circulation. The capital in the circulation phase is called “merchant’s capital”. Then the merchant capital is divided into “Commercial capital” and “Money-dealing capital” (Marx 1981: 379). We can denote merchant capital as W’-G’-G-W, commercial capital as W’-G’, and money-dealing capital as G’-G.

This method is, in terms of form, well balanced. However, Uno and the Unoists criticized it and argued that, methodologically, the emergence of specialized capital requires an explanation of how it can raise the profit rate by reducing circulation capital and costs. Behaviors for higher profit by individual capitals leads to the emergence of specialized capital. This method is called the “Behavioral Approach”. Yamaguchi developed it and formulated the “Theory of Differentiation and Emergence”, which explains the emergence of specialized capital as differentiation or independence of the functions that are intrinsic to the original industrial capital, through competition among individual capitals.

However, an open question remains as to whether this method explains the concrete process — including transitional forms — through which specialized capital emerges, or merely the possibility of reducing circulation capital and costs. Standard texts such as Yamaguchi (1985) and Obata (2009) explain the concrete process through which banking capital emerges, but, in contrast, they did not address the concrete process through which commercial capital emerges. This inconsistency remains unsolved.

Regarding the emergence of bank credit, Uno claimed that banks collect idle money, which inevitably arises within the circuit of industrial capital, and then lend it out. However, modern Unoist scholars have argued that bank credit emerges from the development of commercial credit by the credit intermediary, and banks issue new credit money in anticipation of future money reflux. Their argument was influenced by the debate on inconvertible credit money during the Banknote Controversy in Japan in the 1950s–60s (Iwata 2012b; Okahashi 1957), as well as by the endogenous money supply theories developed since the 1980s.

This paper will explain the concrete processes through which different forms of capital or operations specializing in circulation such as commercial credit or commercial capital emerge. Section 1 shows that idle money does not arise equally among capitals. If circulation, namely salability, is completely uncertain, some capitals have excessive idle money while others are short of reserve funds for a long time. To utilize excessive reserve funds, there are three ways: money lending, commercial credit and commercial capital. Section 2 argues money lending. Contrary to the conventional view, it cannot lead to the emergence of banks. Section 3 discusses commercial credit, which can serve as embryonic form of bank credit. Section 4 discusses commercial credit, which involves credit transactions among different capitals and can develop into money-dealing capital, while suggesting further development toward banking capital. Section 5 presents the conclusion and outlook.

 

1. Uncertainty of circulation and bias of idle money

Industrial capital faces the contradiction between the certainty of production and the uncertainty of circulation. This contradiction can be temporarily resolved by allocating reserve funds.

Let us consider this problem from a purely theoretical perspective. In this case, production per unit time is constant, while sales per unit time are unpredictable and independent of past.

We define:

𝑃: the value of products produced per unit of time

𝑆𝑖: the value of sold products per unit of time

Following Marx’s premises in Chapter 15 of Capital, Volume II, we assume continuous production at a constant pace and disregard profit and fixed capital (Iwata 2025).

Furthermore, we assume that all products are sold in the average period. If we denote Xi = P− Si , then, E[Xi] = P− E[Si] = 0. However, in the uncertain circulation, even if the average of is zero, its variance (or standard deviation) has a positive value. When Xi = P − Si < 0, the capitalist must use its reserve funds to purchase materials for production. The relation between production and sales is shown in the following figure.

 

Figure 1 Circulation process of industrial capital


 

 


 

We assume that the capitalist allocates R0 as initial reserve funds.

As long as R0 +ΣXi >0, the capitalist can continue its operation.

The key issue here is whether the value of ΣXi fluctuates around 0 without excessive bias.  

ΣXi can be expressed by the following recurrence relation: X(i+1)= Xi +εi

In that case, ΣXi follows a random walk. In random walk, even if the mean is zero, the standard deviation increases in proportion to the square root of the number of steps. For simplicity, we assume εiN(0,1) i.i.d (note 1). 

(note 1.  It means that the variables follow a normal distribution with mean zero and standard deviation one, and are independently and identically distributed.)

Since the cumulative sum of Xi follows a random walk, the values do not necessarily return to their initial level. The figure below shows the nine random-walk series. Some series fluctuate around the mean (zero), while others deviate from it for a long time.

  Figure 2 Distribution of Idle Money among Individual Capitals


This deviation implies that some industrial capitals will continue to suffer from a lack of reserves, while others accumulate excess reserves (note2). There are several ways to utilize excess idle money: money lending, commercial credit and commercial capital (note3).

 (note2.Of course, if there are differences in the ability to sell among industrial capitals, the deviation increases further. However, this section shows even if sales are completely uncertain and independent of individual ability to sell, some deviation inevitably arises.)

(note3. These three forms are an application of “polymorphic forms of commodity trade” in Obata 2009.)


2. Money lending

The simplest way is to lend money to other capital. Uno explained the credit from excess idle money in industrial capital as follows: “The money that industrial capitals therefore deposit with banks is then loaned by the banks to other industrial capitals for definite duration of time” (Uno 1980: 110).

However, after him, Unoist scholars such as Yamaguchi emphasized the creation of credit money, which is the anticipation of future reflux of money (Yamaguchi 1984: 45). For example, Yamaguchi argued bank credit emerges as a credit intermediary (Yamaguchi 1985: 224-225) and deposit-taking only contributes to replenishing reserve money. Following the terminology of Lapavitsas 2013, we can say Uno’s method is based on goldsmith view and Yamaguchi’s is based on ‘bills’ view (125). Yamaguchi’ credit money theory and bills view are compatible with the endogenous money supply theories. These views are important not least because modern money is completely inconvertible credit money. Therefore, excess money can be utilized in way other than as loanable capital collected in the bank.

 

3. Commercial Credit

3.1 Uno and successors

Uno described commercial credit as the method to save reserve funds (i.e., unproductive money capital) (Uno 1980: 109). However, he did not clarify the conditions required for the creditor capital. Yamaguchi pointed out two conditions for commercial credit (Yamaguchi 1985: 222-223). First, the seller must have sufficient idle money to continue production without immediate payment. Second, the seller must be able to anticipate the money reflux of the debtor, which requires information about the salability of debtor’s commodity.

 

3.2 Gathering information by the creditor

Certainly, there are many ways for the debtor capital to get money (Lapavitsas 2003: chapter 4). However, if we focus on commercial credit between industrial capitals, we should examine the proceeding of capital circuit G-W…P…W’-G’, especially the salability of the debtor’s commodity W’-G’, which is realization of value (note 4). Although the accrual of surplus value …P…W’ is critical to capitalism and the class relations, this topic belongs to the subject of Capital Volume II. Part Four of Capital, Volume III, discusses the problem of realization (Marx 1981: 392, 394), which is often hidden under the assumption of “normal conditions” (Marx 1978: 335) (note 5).

(note 4.  Regarding Marx’s distinction about production (surplus) value and its realization, see Fine 1985-86: 393.)

(note 5. As is well known, the difficulty of realization is referred to the salto mortale (Marx 1976: 200) )

As the creditor (seller) belongs to the same production chain as the debtor (buyer), the creditor can gather information on the salability of the commodity of the debtor. Traditionally, it is said that repeated cash transactions form the basis of credit sales. However, if a buyer who always used to pay in cash suddenly requests deferred payment, it is natural for the seller to doubt the buyer’s ability to pay. Regardless of whether previous cash transactions were repeated, what matters is the creditor’s ability to anticipate the sale of the debtor’s commodity.

Naturally, industrial capital is concerned with the salability of its own commodity, and it seeks information about the downstream part of the production chain, including its ultimate stage, final consumption. Of course, since information concerns uncertain and unpredictable circulation, not all industrial capitals have equal access to it. Well-informed capitals are able to develop credit operations. 

 

3.3 From creditor to credit intermediator

The premise for commercial credit to function is that the creditor has strong sales and the ability to assess the debtor’s creditworthiness. The creditor can utilize this premises to increase its profit from credit operation.

Suppose that creditor B1 belongs to sector B, which consists of many capitals {Bi} (i = 1, 2, 3…). And assume the buyers from B1 belong to sector A, which consists of many capitals {Ai} (i = 1, 2, 3…).

If B1’s inventory is depleted due to strong sales, it can gain profit by credit intermediation. Since B1 has information about the creditworthiness of some capital in sector A, for example Aj (j =1,2,3,4) and B1 is trusted by other capitals in sector B due to B1’s strong sales and solid money reflux, B1 can intermediate, for example, A1 and B2, who does not have sufficient information of A1. The simple form of credit intermediation is surety of A1’s debt by B(note 6).

(note 6.  The following explanation is based on Obata 2009.)

Figure 3 Surety


Since B2 trusts B1’s surety rather than A1’s debt, A1’s debt with surety of B1 is equivalent to B1’s own debt to B2, which means the surety is equivalent to the exchange between A1’s debt and B1’s debt.

Figure 4 Exchange of debts and purchase


This credit relation can be expressed using financial statements. Since the balance sheet cannot show interest or profit, we use a trial balance (See Appendix) that integrates the balance sheet with the profit and loss statement. In Figure 4, “I_Cost” and “I_revenue” refer to interest cost and interest revenue, respectively.

Figure 5 Exchange of debts and purchase, expressed by the trial balance



As the above figure shows, B1 earns interest revenue by creating a larger claim on A1 than its debt to B2. After paying interest to B2, B1 retains the difference as profit from credit intermediation.

Thus, industrial capital can function as a credit intermediary. When many other capitals place trust in B1, B1’s debt, held as an asset by B2, can circulate as money—similar to the circulation of a bill of exchange. This three–balance–sheet schema represents the embryonic form of a bank, viewed from the perspective of credit creation or the bills view.

However, a bank has many counterparts. For industrial capital to evolve into a bank, it must first develop into commercial capital; and for commercial capital to evolve into a bank, it must engage in money dealing, which enables it to create its own debt money.

 

4. Commercial Capital

4.1 Differentiation and Emergence of Commercial Capital

A third way to utilize idle money is to take over the selling function of other industrial capitals. The uncertainty of circulation includes differences in sales among sellers within the same sector, a phenomenon referred to as “contingency in individual sales” (Iwata 2020). If a capital sale out its inventory due to strong sales, it can purchase the commodity from other capital and resell them. First, it is natural to purchase the same commodity as its own. However, it can expand the range of commodities to purchase. Similar to the movement of industrial capital into other sectors, the capital can invest entirely in circulation instead of renewing its fixed capital (Iwata 2020). By doing so, the capital can expand its purchases beyond the limits of its own production, thereby increasing its profits. This is the concrete process of the differentiation and emergence of commercial capital.

Nex, let us show how profit is transferred.

Without considering circulation, the profit rate of industrial capital is usually shown as S/(C+V). C is constant capital, V is variable capital and S is surplus value. When circulation is considered, the profit rate is (S-k)/(C+V+B+k). B is capital used to purchase commodities, and k is the total circulation cost, or the capital needed to cover it (note 7).

(note 7. This formula assumes a single turnover. If we consider more than one turnover, the numerator, s−k, becomes the product of the turnover number and S−k.)

When commercial capital is differentiated, profit should be transferred. If we denote the transferred profit by S′ and assume the profit rates of industrial and commercial capital are equal, the following equation holds: (S-S')/(C+V)= (S'-k)/(B+k). From this equation, it follows that S’ = S‣(B+k)/(C+V+B+k)+ . This formula shows that commercial capital receives surplus value in proportion to its own investment, and also receives compensation corresponding to the circulation costs that industrial capital would otherwise bear (Iwata 2021a). Thus, commercial capital becomes differentiated, and the profit S’ is transferred to it.

 

4.2 Idle Money and Credit in Commercial Capital

Without productive fixed capital, the assumptions of continuous production no longer hold for commercial capital. Commercial capital can easily change the kinds and quantities of commodities it handles. If sales become stronger, they increase purchases, and vice versa. Therefore, it does not have such inevitable idle money as industrial capital does; in other words, the absence of continuous production corresponds to the absence of idle money.

Commercial capital can expand the volume of its transactions beyond the capital advanced for purchase (B), by using credit. As debtor, it requires creditor industrial capital with sufficient idle money. In contrast, it can sell on credit either by receiving credit from the latter or by reducing its own purchase. More likely, commercial capital uses commercial credit in both purchase and sale, obtaining credit from industrial capital with sufficient idle money.

                                                                                                         

4.3 From Commercial Capital to Money-Dealing Capital

Another characteristic of commercial capital is that it can both buy from and sell to the same industrial capital, since it does not have productive fixed capital (Shibasaki 2016: 81). In other words, commercial capital can take over not only selling process but also buying process from the same industrial capital.

If we describe the process step by step: first, industrial capital sells its product to commercial capital on credit, based on its idle money. Second, the industrial capital holds a claim on the commercial capital—idle money now takes this form. Third, when the industrial capital purchases commodities from the commercial capital, the previous claim is offset by a new debt to it. This implies that money is dealt with as a liability on the balance sheet of the commercial capital.

Historically, money-dealing capital has often been explained with reference to the actual practices of dealing in different kinds of precious metal coins or long-distance money remittances. Theoretically, however, it is more appropriate to explain it as the operation of its own debt as money, backed by commodities or other assets (Iwata 2022), not least for elucidating the current inconvertible credit money as bank debt.

If this money-dealing function merges with the credit intermediation discussed in Section 3.3, banking capital would emerge.

However, an open question remains here. Marx described the evolution of credit system whose center is bank credit by two routes: form commercial credit to bank credit (Marx 1981: 525) and money-dealing, integrated with interest bearing capital (ibid, 528). The relation between them is not clear. The two routes correspond to the arguments in sections 3 and 4 in the paper. Therefore, here, I only point out the possibility that banking capital may emerge from the integration of credit intermediation and money-dealing.

 

Conclusion

Under the gold standard, the conventional view that banks collect idle money and lend it out might have been rational. In contrast, in the modern era, money takes the form of completely inconvertible credit money. This paper has argued that credit money originates from the ways of utilizing idle money within the circuit of industrial capital—namely, through money lending, commercial credit, and commercial capital. In commercial credit, industrial capital can gather information about its buyers and engage in credit intermediation. By contrast, commercial capital can diversify its counterparties and take over both the selling and buying processes of the same industrial capital, which leads to money-dealing operations. When both functions are combined within a single capital, banking capital emerges.

Of course, in a highly developed financial economy, it may appear that financial claims and debts are confined within purely financial relations, apart from industrial capital. However, from a theoretical standpoint, banks and credit money can be derived from the profit-seeking activities of industrial capital within circulation.

Nevertheless, some limitations remain. This paper leaves the issue of the merger between credit intermediation and money-dealing operations for future consideration. Uno and his successors were originally critical of Marx’s concept of money-dealing capital, arguing that only the route from commercial credit to bank credit should be adopted. However, their stance later changed under the influence of theories of inconvertible credit money, such as the endogenous money supply approach. Moreover, recent studies of Marx’s manuscripts require us to reconsider the description in the current version of Capital edited by Engels.

Despite these limitations, this paper has proposed a logical process for the emergence of commercial credit, commercial capital, money-dealing operations, and finally, banking capital.

 

Appendix: The Basic Concept of Trial Balance

Profit = Revenue - Cost

 

Reference

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